György Nógrádi: “V4 wants North-South cooperation”

György Nógrádi: “V4 wants North-South cooperation”

György Nógrádi, one of the best-known and most sought-after security policy experts, spoke at a conference organized in Satu Mare, organized by the local organization Szent István Kör. During the conference, he analyzed the situation of the current world politics, then the situation of the European Union, especially the situation of Central Europe, after holding a debate on the relationship between Hungary and Romania, as well as the situation of the Hungarian community in Transylvania. Below you can find some details from the conference.

Three Global Players: USA, China, Russia

“Today, there are three global players in the world: the United States, China and Russia. However, the US has the most decisive global role at this time, Europe is no longer a global player, but it still behaves as if it was.”

“Big dilemma for the US: who is its main enemy, China or Russia?”

“In connection with the United States, we have only one main question: is Trump right for the presidency? From my point of view, he is not, but it should be noted here that the other presidencies were not as well, nor was Obama, who was the first but not the last afro-American president because most of the US population will be made up of afro -Americans. For many years now, most newborns have colored skin. The presidents of the United States have never been geniuses and they are not even at this moment. The biggest problem of the United States is that its role in the world is diminishing, but it is still decisive, so at present it is not possible to organize federal systems against the United States. Another American dilemma is related to its enemies, who is the main enemy of the States: China or Russia? There is no clear answer to this question, so China and Russia are forced to form an alliance, even if Russia hates China with all its soul and vice versa. ”

China wants to keep the islands from around the country

“However, China’s GDP over the next few years will exceed US GDP, in this way the US will be in second place. One third of the world’s currency reserves are already in the hands of the Chinese, and the world’s banks do not know what to do with it. It can happen that the Chinese money becomes world money. Although the current world order is not acceptable for China. This means that it favors the West and not China. China has built a long-term strategy, according to which China has become a leader in Southeast Asia. All the time we dare to say that Chinese technology is a world leader, it has overtaken the US. The Chinese are all over the world spying for China. According to the Chinese principle, the land borders are accepted, but it does not accept any maritime border. He accepted that Tibet is part of China, but never says that under Tibet is a third of their water resources. China will never give up on this. In addition, China wants to keep the islands around it. There is also rare mention of China taking Siberia into account as an ancient Chinese territory. And over 10-15 years wants to recover, after Putin. Not with war, with the introduction of the Chinese into the territory. At this point in the Siberian population, 40-50% are Chinese. When Kosovo became independent it accepted the countries with a united population. Countries with minorities were not accepted. It is an example for China, if this could be achieved in Kosovo, then it can also be achieved in the case of Siberia. ”

“It may happen that Russia will lose its power”

“Russia is the third global player. It is far behind the US or China. It has two main powers: oil and gas and the army. The most important thing for Russians is the price on the oil market. If it is higher is able to raise the pension and can invest in the army. The dilemma of the Russians is Ukraine. Most of the population on the Crimea is made up of Russians. The other dilemma of the Russians is that their economic performance is similar to Italy, which is not very satisfying. The principle of Russia was that Poroshenko will win by fraud. He lost so many percent before he could not cheat so much. The Russians were not ready for a new president. Previously, the world was not prepared for events after Helmuth Kholl. And now we have the opportunity to prepare for the events after China’s consolidation. ”

The EU and the Visegrád Group

“Visegrad people agreed in one thing, they do not want migrants. This problem differs both in Bulgaria, Romania and in the Baltic countries. Each region has its own problem. Now we agree with V4 that we want North-South cooperation, not to mention just East and West. One of the top five EU leaders should be someone in V4. It is also about the number of women leaders in these five. It is a big question too if there is a chance that the two top candidates can take over the Presidency in the European Commission.”

Romanian-Hungarian relations

“The main goal of Hungary is to strengthen the good relationship between the two countries and to find the place and role of the Hungarians living in Romania in their native country. Romania’s advantage is that it has a larger territory than Hungary, it has a sea exit, it is closer to Russia, if it comes to the Georgia problem, Romania is more important than anybody else, it has a perfect military geographical position. The issue of minorities is not resolved anywhere in Europe. Our region is interested in escaping national minorities: through assimilation, mixed marriage, at any cost. Let’s check the minority population rate in the Transylvanian cities 30 years ago, and what is the situation now! According to this data, we can achieve a strategy. We can talk about the purpose of Budapest, we are talking about continuity and not about the fact that every four years the government changes and each has a different policy towards national minorities. ”

(TFP translation)

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